Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 0.363264 0.414414 0.469953 0.534708 0.608108 0.688702 0.783884
2025-08-31 0.284290 0.350942 0.428925 0.526795 0.646253 0.787239 0.966207
2025-09-07 0.236686 0.313937 0.410662 0.540421 0.709724 0.922916 1.211599
2025-09-14 0.187852 0.266633 0.371771 0.521920 0.730425 1.009307 1.410273
2025-09-21 0.154439 0.233619 0.345802 0.515659 0.765627 1.119218 1.656610
2025-09-28 0.127359 0.204612 0.320418 0.505678 0.793566 1.222673 1.909469
2025-10-05 0.112169 0.190595 0.314487 0.523043 0.863842 1.396882 2.291553
2025-10-12 0.096217 0.172485 0.299139 0.522939 0.906509 1.534409 2.636647
2025-10-19 0.084305 0.158985 0.288992 0.529451 0.960452 1.696760 3.044657
2025-10-26 0.075492 0.149358 0.283807 0.543427 1.028785 1.891814 3.534949
2025-11-02 0.063952 0.132608 0.263135 0.525992 1.037948 1.984320 3.855971
2025-11-09 0.053276 0.115619 0.239249 0.498532 1.023875 2.031964 4.099832
2025-11-16 0.045917 0.104341 0.225229 0.489333 1.046086 2.155177 4.514830
2025-11-23 0.039575 0.094067 0.211596 0.478781 1.064156 2.273340 4.938491
2025-11-30 0.035825 0.088870 0.207864 0.488756 1.126951 2.491054 5.599251
2025-12-07 0.030543 0.079103 0.192432 0.470269 1.124966 2.573005 5.983853
2025-12-14 0.026807 0.072356 0.182760 0.463385 1.148045 2.712406 6.515318
2025-12-21 0.023435 0.065859 0.172565 0.453517 1.162543 2.834531 7.025259
2025-12-28 0.021804 0.063617 0.172449 0.468483 1.239248 3.110446 7.934235
2026-01-04 0.019616 0.059422 0.166637 0.467914 1.277095 3.299189 8.659630
2026-01-11 0.017947 0.056368 0.163322 0.473409 1.331466 3.535917 9.538031
2026-01-18 0.016715 0.054361 0.162529 0.485683 1.405815 3.833188 10.613090
2026-01-25 0.014632 0.049335 0.152368 0.469869 1.400940 3.925071 11.162711